The abortion rights debate following the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision has spurred a surge in women registering to vote in Pennsylvania, potentially reshaping the political landscape ahead of the November elections. According to consulting firm TargetSmart, 56% of new Pennsylvania voter registrations since the Roe v. Wade ruling are women, outpacing men by about 12%. This trend is mirrored in other battleground states across the country, such as Kansas, where women comprised 69% of new registrations.
TargetSmart data reveals that 62% of newly registered women are Democrats, compared to 15% who are Republicans. Notably, 54% of these women are under 25. Meanwhile, 41% of newly registered men are under 25, with 43% identifying as Democrats and 28% as Republicans. While Pennsylvania voters aren’t required to disclose their gender when registering, data from local election officials and public records indicates a significant increase in female voter registration.
Political analyst G. Terry Madonna notes that Pennsylvania women are highly engaged in this year’s election, with the Roe v. Wade ruling as a primary motivator. Since the May 17 primary, 25,525 new voters have registered statewide, bringing the total to 8,763,958. In York County, registrations have increased by 2,187 since May, reaching 308,725. Republicans gained 1,075 new voters, while Democrats added 558. Concurrently, 503 Republicans switched to the Democratic Party, and 1,277 Democrats switched to the Republican Party.
This voter registration trend is potentially shifting the dynamics of the upcoming election. Previously, Republicans were projected to win the House and possibly gain Senate seats. However, Democrats now have a stronger chance of gaining Senate seats, where they currently hold a majority thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote. Voter turnout is expected to be very high in the general election.
Pennsylvania’s election will decide the Governor and a U.S. Senate seat. Abortion and women’s reproductive rights are key issues in both races. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro has criticized Republican candidate Doug Mastriano as “too extreme” for his stance on a complete abortion ban. Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman supports abortion rights, while his Republican opponent Mehmet Oz has a more ambiguous stance, though he recently stated support for exceptions in cases of incest and rape.
Some Republican candidates are adjusting their abortion stances to appeal to voters in the general election. For instance, Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters removed language supporting a “federal personhood law” from his campaign website and adopted a more moderate position. Doug Mastriano has also deleted some of his controversial online posts.
However, the political landscape remains volatile, and other events could impact voter registration before the October 24 deadline. The deadline to request a mail-in ballot is November 1, and mail-in ballots must be received by the election office by 8 p.m. on Tuesday, November 8. Polls indicate both Shapiro and Fetterman are currently leading their Republican opponents.
